Today, the Vermont Department of Labor released data on the Vermont economy for the time period covering July 2021. According to household data, the seasonally-adjusted statewide unemployment rate for July was 3.0 percent. This reflects a decrease of one-tenth of one percentage point from the prior month’s revised estimate.
“This month’s report supports what we heard anecdotally – Vermont is continuing on a slow, yet sustained, economic recovery. Household data for Vermont shows significant increases to the labor force and the number of people employed in July, and businesses have reported increases in the number of filled positions for the third month in a row. While this is generally the case statewide, some industries and regions within Vermont continue to be more significantly affected by the lasting impacts of the pandemic. Employment in the Accommodation and Food Services sector, for example, is down nearly 20% from pre-COVID levels, and five counties – Bennington, Grand Isle, Lamoille, Rutland, and Windham – are down over 10% in employment from a year ago based on Q1 2021 data.
We also know that the end of expanded federal unemployment benefits on September 4th could be a difficult transition for some and our goal continues to be to get as many Vermonters back to work as quickly as possible. If you are a jobseeker looking for a place to start, or a business looking to hire, the Vermont Department of Labor is here to help. Visit https://labor.vermont.gov/jobs for more information on workforce and reemployment services.” - Michael Harrington, Labor Commissioner
State of Vermont Overview
The Vermont seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate decreased to 3.0 percent in July. The comparable United States rate in July was 5.4 percent, which was a decrease of five-tenths of one percentage point from the revised June estimate. The seasonally-adjusted Vermont data for July show the Vermont civilian labor force increased by 1,501 from the prior month’s revised estimate (see Table 1). The number of employed persons increased by 1,513 and the number of unemployed persons decreased by 12. The changes to the labor force and the number of employed persons were statistically significant in the seasonally-adjusted series.
The July unemployment rates for Vermont’s 17 labor market areas ranged from 2.5 percent in White River Junction to 4.4 percent in Bennington (note: local labor market area unemployment rates are not seasonally-adjusted – see Table 2). For comparison, the July unadjusted unemployment rate for Vermont was 3.2 percent, which was a decrease of four-tenths of one percentage point from the revised unadjusted June level and a decrease of three and four tenths percentage points from a year ago.
Analysis of Job Changes by Industry
Seasonally-Adjusted (Table 3)
The seasonally-adjusted data for July reports an increase of 6,700 jobs from the revised June data. There was a decrease of 100 jobs between the preliminary and the revised June estimates due to the inclusion of more data. The seasonally-adjusted over-the-month changes in July varied at the industry level. Those with a notable increase include: Local Government (+3,700 or +14.0%), Arts, Entertainment & Recreation (+300 jobs or +8.3%) and Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities (+400 or +5.1%). Industries with a notable decrease include: Construction (-200 jobs or -1.4%) and Retail Trade (-400 or -1.2%).
Not-Seasonally-Adjusted (Table 4)
The preliminary ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ jobs estimates for July shows an increase of 3,300 jobs when compared to the revised June numbers. As with the ‘seasonally-adjusted’ data, this over-the-month change is from the revised June numbers which experienced an increase of 200 jobs from the preliminary estimates. The broader economic picture can be seen by focusing on the over-the-year changes in this data series. As detailed in the preliminary ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ July data, Total Private industries have increased by 24,200 jobs (+10.7%) and Government (including public education) employment has increased by 2,000 jobs (+4.3%) in the past year.
The Unemployment and Jobs Report for August is scheduled to be released on Friday, September 17, 2021 at 10:00 a.m. Read the full report at http://www.vtlmi.info/press.pdf.